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201212May10:15

There’s not always safety in Num­bers regard­ing Extinc­tion Risk

Infor­ma­tion
pub­lished 12 May 2012 | mod­i­fied 05 Decem­ber 2012
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A basic tenet under­pin­ning sci­en­tists’ under­stand­ing of extinc­tion is that more abun­dant species per­sist longer than their less abun­dant coun­ter­parts, but a new Uni­ver­sity of Geor­gia study reveals a much more com­plex relationship.

The find­ings appear in the cur­rent issue of the jour­nal Pale­o­bi­ol­ogy.

A team of sci­en­tists ana­lyzed more than 46,000 fos­sils from 52 sites and found that greater num­bers did indeed help clam-​like bra­chiopods sur­vive the Ordovi­cian extinc­tion, which killed off approx­i­mately half of the Earth’s life forms some 444 mil­lion years ago. Sur­pris­ingly, abun­dance did not help bra­chio­pod species per­sist for extended peri­ods out­side of the extinc­tion event.

This study shows that extinc­tion is much more com­pli­cated than gen­er­ally real­ized. It turns out that a lot of extinc­tion events are idio­syn­cratic; there are a spe­cific set of cir­cum­stances that come together and dic­tate whether some­thing goes or doesn’t.

Study co-​author Steven Hol­land, a pro­fes­sor of geol­ogy in the UGA Franklin Col­lege of Arts and Sci­ences, said the seem­ingly para­dox­i­cal find­ing sug­gests that pre­dict­ing which species are at risk of extinc­tion is an extremely dicey endeavor. Hol­land and co-​author Andrew Zaf­fos, a for­mer master’s stu­dent at UGA, exam­ined fos­sils from the Cincin­nati Arch, a racetrack-​shaped geo­logic fea­ture that arcs around south­east­ern Indi­ana, north­ern Ken­tucky and south­west­ern Ohio. The region is known in geol­ogy cir­cles as one of the most fossil-​rich areas on the planet. Bra­chiopods are numer­ous and well pre­served there, mak­ing them an ideal group of ani­mals to test the link between abun­dance and extinction.

The researchers looked at nearly 30 dif­fer­ent gen­era — a step up from species on the bio­log­i­cal clas­si­fi­ca­tion scale — of bra­chiopods and clas­si­fied them based on whether or not they sur­vived the Ordovi­cian extinc­tion as well as by their global dura­tions. They found a link between abun­dance and sur­vivor­ship of the extinc­tion event, but there was no cor­re­la­tion between abun­dance and dura­tion. In fact, mem­bers of rarer gen­era were more likely to be present longer in the fos­sil record.

Zaf­fos, who is cur­rently pur­su­ing a doc­tor­ate at the Uni­ver­sity of Cincin­nati, noted that the coun­ter­in­tu­itive results high­light the unique con­tri­bu­tion that under­stand­ing the fos­sil record brings to con­ser­va­tion. “Many recent stud­ies of extinc­tion by pale­o­bi­ol­o­gists are com­ing out with find­ings that are con­trary to what we see in mod­ern envi­ron­ments and some­times even con­trary to what other pale­on­tol­o­gists see in other geo­logic eras,” he said. “I think this is why pale­o­bi­ol­ogy is so important-it’s the only way for us to exam­ine ecol­ogy at mul­ti­ple points in the Earth’s his­tory, when per­haps the envi­ron­men­tal and bio­log­i­cal set­tings were dif­fer­ent enough that even our most intu­itive expec­ta­tions don’t hold.”

Hol­land admit­ted that the find­ings are a bit dis­heart­en­ing. The planet is cur­rently in the midst of an extinc­tion event caused by human-​induced habi­tat loss and global warm­ing, and sci­en­tists would like to be able to pre­dict which species are most at risk so that scarce resources can be put toward their conservation.

You really want to be able to make some pre­dic­tions about extinc­tion risk so that you can guide poli­cies, and if the selec­tiv­ity of extinc­tion is much more com­pli­cated, it makes it harder to gen­er­ate those rules.
(Steven Holland)

The above news item is reprinted from mate­ri­als avail­able at Uni­ver­sity of Geor­gia via Sci­enceDaily. Orig­i­nal text may be edited for con­tent and length.

(Source: UGA Today, 12.05.2012)

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