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201317Jan22:55

NASA finds 2012 sus­tained long-​term cli­mate warm­ing trend

Infor­ma­tion
pub­lished 17 Jan­u­ary 2013 | mod­i­fied 17 Jan­u­ary 2013
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Globaltemp mapNASA sci­en­tists say 2012 was the ninth warmest of any year since 1880, con­tin­u­ing a long-​term trend of ris­ing global tem­per­a­tures. With the excep­tion of 1998, the nine warmest years in the 132-​year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 rank­ing as the hottest years on record.

NASA’s God­dard Insti­tute for Space Stud­ies (GISS) in New York, which mon­i­tors global sur­face tem­per­a­tures on an ongo­ing basis, released an updated analy­sis on Tues­day Jan­u­ary 15 that com­pares tem­per­a­tures around the globe in 2012 to the aver­age global tem­per­a­ture from the mid-​20th cen­tury. The com­par­i­son shows how Earth con­tin­ues to expe­ri­ence warmer tem­per­a­tures than sev­eral decades ago. See a 13 sec­ond movie that visu­alises th eglobal tem­per­a­ture changes start­ing from 1950 through 2012


The aver­age tem­per­a­ture in 2012 was about 58.3 degrees Fahren­heit (14.6 Cel­sius), which is 1.0 F (0.6 C) warmer than the mid-​20th cen­tury base­line. The aver­age global tem­per­a­ture has risen about 1.4 degrees F (0.8 C) since 1880, accord­ing to the new analy­sis.

Sci­en­tists empha­sise that weather pat­terns always will cause fluc­tu­a­tions in aver­age tem­per­a­ture from year to year, but the con­tin­ued increase in green­house gas lev­els in Earth’s atmos­phere assures a long-​term rise in global tem­per­a­tures. Each suc­ces­sive year will not nec­es­sar­ily be warmer than the year before, but on the cur­rent course of green­house gas increases, sci­en­tists expect each suc­ces­sive decade to be warmer than the pre­vi­ous decade.

One more year of num­bers isn’t in itself sig­nif­i­cant. What mat­ters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warm­ing. The rea­son it’s warm­ing is because we are pump­ing increas­ing amounts of car­bon diox­ide into the atmosphere.
(Gavin Schmidt, GISS cli­ma­tol­o­gist)

Car­bon diox­ide is a green­house gas that traps heat and largely con­trols Earth’s cli­mate. It occurs nat­u­rally and also is emit­ted by the burn­ing of fos­sil fuels for energy. Dri­ven by increas­ing man-​made emis­sions, the level of car­bon diox­ide in Earth’s atmos­phere has been ris­ing con­sis­tently for decades.

The car­bon diox­ide level in the atmos­phere was about 285 parts per mil­lion in 1880, the first year in the GISS tem­per­a­ture record. By 1960, the atmos­pheric car­bon diox­ide con­cen­tra­tion, mea­sured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Obser­va­tory, was about 315 parts per mil­lion. Today, that mea­sure­ment exceeds 390 parts per mil­lion.

While the globe expe­ri­enced rel­a­tively warm tem­per­a­tures in 2012, the con­ti­nen­tal U.S. endured its warmest year on record by far, accord­ing to NOAA, the offi­cial keeper of U.S. weather records.

“The U.S. tem­per­a­tures in the sum­mer of 2012 are an exam­ple of a new trend of out­ly­ing sea­sonal extremes that are warmer than the hottest sea­sonal tem­per­a­tures of the mid-​20th cen­tury,” GISS direc­tor James E. Hansen said. “The cli­mate dice are now loaded. Some sea­sons still will be cooler than the long-​term aver­age, but the per­cep­tive per­son should notice that the fre­quency of unusu­ally warm extremes is increas­ing. It is the extremes that have the most impact on peo­ple and other life on the planet.“

The tem­per­a­ture analy­sis pro­duced at GISS is com­piled from weather data from more than 1,000 mete­o­ro­log­i­cal sta­tions around the world, satel­lite obser­va­tions of sea-​surface tem­per­a­ture, and Antarc­tic research sta­tion mea­sure­ments. A pub­licly avail­able com­puter pro­gram is used to cal­cu­late the dif­fer­ence between sur­face tem­per­a­ture in a given month and the aver­age tem­per­a­ture for the same place dur­ing 1951 to 1980. This three-​decade period func­tions as a base­line for the analy­sis. The last year that expe­ri­enced cooler tem­per­a­tures than the 1951 to 1980 aver­age was 1976.

The GISS tem­per­a­ture record is one of sev­eral global tem­per­a­ture analy­ses, along with those pro­duced by the Met Office Hadley Cen­tre in the United King­dom and the National Oceanic and Atmos­pheric Administration’s National Cli­matic Data Cen­ter in Asheville, N.C. These three pri­mary records use slightly dif­fer­ent meth­ods, but over­all, their trends show close agreement.

Read WWF’s state­ment from Lou Leonard, Man­ag­ing Direc­tor of Cli­mate Change, in response to this NASA news release


(Source: NASA news release, 15.01.2013)

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